Okay, so you have probably heard that the 2005 AMA Supercross series should be the best ever. Everyone seems to agree on that. Who will win?
Focusing on the top contenders, you have Ricky Carmichael (Suzuki), defending champ Chad Reed (Yamaha), James Stewart (Kawasaki) and Kevin Windham (Honda).
In our opinion, among these riders, Ricky Carmichael and Chad Reed should be the two battling for the championship. It is really a toss-up between these two riders, but our pick is Chad Reed for the 2005 AMA Supercross championship.
Reed has beaten Carmichael the last several times they have raced on a supercross track (including at the US Open in October of this year). Carmichael looks excellent on his new RM250, however, and both of these guys know how to win championships.
Both Reed and Carmichael know that consistency wins a 16 race series like the AMA Supercross series. These guys expect to be on the podium all 16 rounds and, absent mechanical problems or injuries, they could easily do that.
James Stewart will be the fastest rider on the track, but his speed advantage over Carmichael and Reed will be small. We think that Stewart will be “hanging it out” to run that pace on his new 250, and expect crashes, and inconsistency during his first season in the big-bike class. In the end we think Stewart will be consistent enough to get third in the series, but no higher. He will win races, but have the occasional bad result, hurting his points total.
Kevin Windham is a great supercross rider. He has a great bike underneath him (the 2005 CRF450R is a better supercross machine than the 2004 bike), and he rode to several victories last year. We are picking Windham to finish fourth in the series, but he could be a race winner at any given round.
Another rider to watch is Travis Preston (Honda), although he is healing up from a broken collar bone. Preston has had injury problems before, but he is extremely fast when he is healthy, and the Honda CRF450R would seem to suit him perfectly (he is a big, heavy guy).
Of course, there are plenty of other fast riders participating in 2005, including Mike LaRocco (Honda), David Vuillemin (Yamaha), Tim Ferry (Yamaha), and even Jeremy McGrath (Honda). Leaving McGrath aside, none of these riders could consistently match the pace of Reed or Windham last year, however, and we see no reason why they would be title contenders in 2005. McGrath will only race selected rounds.
