Is this the year that Ricky Carmichael loses outdoors? After all, conditions couldn’t be better for Carmichael’s opponents. Carmichael sat out the entire supercross series this year with a bum knee (actually, to be accurate, he had a bum knee last year, which was corrected by surgery earlier this year). He must be rusty, right? Add to this the fact that Carmichael is switching bikes. No, he is still on a Honda, but he is switching from his beloved CR250R two-stroke to a CRF450R four-stroke.
So, a rusty rider returning on an entirely new machine. Sounds like an opening for his opponents, but I don’t really think so.
Carmichael is the most consistent winner outdoors we have ever seen. He could slip quite a bit this year, actually, and still take the title. Sure, Kevin Windham beat Carmichael a few times last year, but Carmichael is still the man to beat outdoors, and nobody has really come too close to doing that in a long time (remember his perfect season outdoors two years ago?).
So, we pick Carmichael to take the title again this year in the 250 class (it should be called the “450 class”, pretty soon). Who will finish behind him? The easy answer is everyone, but we will try to be a bit more specific. Finishing second this year will be Kevin Windham, also on a Honda CRF450R. In third position will be a faster Chad Reed on a Yamaha YZ450F. Reed rode a 250cc two-stroke last year, and he could not keep Carmichael and Windham in sight at most tracks. We predict he will ride much more competitively this year, and, perhaps, even take a moto win now and again.
In the 125 class, an equally dominant rider will take the title this year. His name is James Stewart, and he will be riding a Kawasaki 125cc two-stroke machine. This is where it gets interesting. Behind Stewart, we think Ryan Hughes (aboard a KTM 125cc two-stroke) will finish second on the year, with Mike Brown (on a Yamaha four-stroke) finishing third.
As we stated in an article a few days ago, the four-strokes are not ready to dominate the 125cc motocross series this year. Stewart and Hughes are just too good, and their two-strokes are awfully good, as well.
What about young David Millsaps (Suzuki)? Millsaps will only get faster. He is just 16 years old (16 years and a few months, to be exact). His impressive win in the second moto at yesterday’s “prequel” at Glen Helen is a sign of things to come, but we think this will be a learning year for Millsaps, not a year to take one of the top three spots. Would it surprise us if he did? Not too much.
